NHS pay must rise if workforce targets are to be met says IFS
Posted 30 August 2023 - 15:45
Analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies says ambitious NHS staffing targets will only be met if salaries are raised to attract and retain staff
NHS wages will have to become more generous to meet ambitious staffing targets in the NHS Long Term Workforce Plan, according to a new report.
Workforce plan will only succeed if it is backed by better NHS salaries, says new analysis
In order to rapidly grow the health service workforce as planned, salaries will have to match or exceed the wider economy to attract more people into the NHS according to analysis by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).
NHS England’s workforce plan published in June set out how the service intends to deal with severe staff shortages.
About 180,000 nurses are expected to join the NHS over the coming years, the document states, along with huge boosts to nursing associates of more than 1,100%, according to the IFS analysis.
It is expected that the number of staff employed permanently by the NHS will grow from 1.4 million in 2021-22 to between 2.2 million in 2036-37.
But the IFS warned the workforce plan does not consider the large increases in the NHS pay bill or the demand to treat more patients, which could ‘lead to difficult fiscal decisions’ in future spending reviews.
‘More significantly, if the NHS is going to expand its workforce by more than half, it will need a strategy for attracting workers into the sector (and subsequently retaining them). That is almost certain to require real-terms wage increases, and highly likely to require pay increases that match – or perhaps even exceed – economy-wide earnings growth,’ the report said.
It also noted that the plan assumes that both real wages and the mix of professional groups would stay constant between 2021–22 and 2036–37, which it called not ‘plausible’.
Fair pay is fundamental for creating good workplaces, says RCN chief
Responding to the research, RCN general secretary Pat Cullen said: ‘It is vital that the government makes the NHS a good workplace that will attract the best people. And fair pay is a fundamental part of this – otherwise we’ll see nurses continue to leave in their droves.
‘Failing to provide the investment that the workforce plan needs will put the entire plan in danger of collapse, add to the record backlog of care and put patient care at even greater risk. The funding must not come at the expense of frontline services.’
Nurses in England took historic strike action in the six months from December over fair pay, working conditions and patient safety. A pay deal of 5% for 2023-24 plus a series of one-off payments for 2022-23 were eventually agreed by the NHS Staff Council, despite members of the RCN rejecting the deal.
A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: ‘We are backing the plan with more than £2.4 billion over the next five years. Decisions about spending review periods beyond this will be announced in the usual way, but this demonstrates our commitment to delivering the whole plan.’
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